Starting from late July, domestic steel prices reopened rapidly and fell. By the end of August, steel prices had fallen by 400-500 yuan/ton from the previous period, and spot prices for rebar and hot-rolled coils had been tested at 3,500 and 3,600 yuan several times. At the threshold of tons, although prices of various species still fell slightly, the decline has slowed down significantly.
As of yesterday, the domestic average price of 5.75mm HRC in 21 major markets was 3,668 yuan/ton, down by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of 20mm general plate was 3625 yuan/ton, down by 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; 1.0 The average price of mm cold plate was 4,620 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton lower than the previous day; the national average price of 20mm secondary rebar was 3,638 yuan/ton, down by 2 yuan/ton from the previous day; Tangshan billet touched the previous low point 3260 again After yuan/ton, it began to stabilize and stabilized, and Tangshan's procurement of billet rolling mills increased. Starting in the middle of this week, the long-term rebound in the long-term contract market for H-disk and Hirota was the first attempt to stabilise and rebound after the steel market collapsed. It was a slight rebound after the price fell, and was also supported by some favorable factors. From the point of view of the spot, after steel mills overhaul after the collapse, crude steel production fell, social inventory, pessimism and other factors under the influence of domestic steel prices may usher in bottoming out in August.
External disk data is conducive to the simultaneous rise of the stock market and the market
Last Friday, the U.S. stocks ended sharply higher and US stocks rose this week. Non-agricultural employment in the United States rose by 163,000 in July was far better than expected, and ISM manufacturing data also beat the expectations, boosting market sentiment. At the close, the Dow closed at 13,096.17 points, or 1.69%; the Nasdaq rose 2%; the S&P 500 gained 1.9%. New York crude oil prices hit the highest closing price in two weeks, mainly due to better-than-expected US employment report and service industry index, which brought optimism to the market. Weekend crude oil prices rose 4.27 US dollars to close at 91.4 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 4.9%, the highest single-day percentage increase since the end of June. Crude oil prices rose by nearly 1.5% this week. London's London base metal last night closed at 7528.5 US cents, which rose 103 US dollars during the week, or 1.39%.
The decline in daily output of crude steel mitigates the pressure on resources in the later period
According to the latest XNA data of the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key large and medium-sized enterprises in the second half of July 2012 was 1.607 million tons, down 2.7% month-on-month, and the average daily crude steel output of the country was 1.949 million tons, down by 2.2% from the end of the previous year. %. The Xun Bao also showed that in July, the national average daily output of crude steel was estimated at 1.967 million tons, which was lower than the actual average daily output in June (200.71 million tons decreased by 1.99%). The decline in daily output of crude steel in late July was mainly due to the current month’s steel. The price fell rapidly, the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken, and inspections increased significantly, and as a result, the previous mill maintenance was extended to overhaul of blast furnaces. As of August 9th, Zhonglian Steel Statistics had determined that 42 blast furnaces in the country had been shut down or overhauled. The output was 1,601,000 tons; 28 bar lines were overhauled, affecting output of 522,500 tons; 10 hot rolling lines were overhauled, affecting output of 5.2-53 million tons; 3 cold rolling lines were overhauled, affecting output of 50,000 tons; 6 plates Line maintenance will affect the output of 17.8-183,000 tons; 7 strip steel production lines will be overhauled, affecting production of 8.5-8.9 million tons; and the maintenance of 2 section steel production lines will affect the output of 15,000 tons.
Reduced profitability of steel mills
At present, the price of iron ore and coke in raw material products remains in a narrow range, and the impact on the production costs of small and medium-sized steel plants is not obvious; while the cost of large steel mills has remained high for a long time. The domestic Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Benxi Steel Group and Taiyuan Iron & Steel Company issued their order policies in August and they all made up for the previous period. The maintenance of steel plants has gradually increased, and the current sharp drop in raw materials has caused the cost of steel mills to move downwards and the current cost of each product or office has been reduced. The current market continued to consolidate, coupled with the increase in steel factory policy, the current profitability of steel mills showed a gradual decline. Starting from July, major steel mills have started to lower the ex-factory price policy. From the adjustment point of view, the adjustment is still based on the following adjustments. The price of sheet metal is reduced by a relatively large margin and is close to the market price, indicating that the steel plant has implemented the contract. There is still some concern about the guarantee of the channel. At present, the decline in social steel stocks, the ushering in adjustment window for monetary funds, and the pessimistic market sentiment have all provided favorable conditions for a slight rebound in market prices. The decline in market prices is limited, and the room for continued downward adjustment of the factory price of steel mills is relatively limited. It is expected that the ex-factory prices of some steel mills will be raised in flat or slightly higher prices in September.
Inventories hit new lows during the year to provide support for price rebound
As of the end of the week, total social steel inventories in 25 key markets across the country totaled 15,299.7 million tons, a decrease of 79,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 630,300 tons from the high point of 18.93 million tons in early February of this year, with a fall of 19.2%. The current inventory quantity continues to set a new low this year. From the perspective of supply and demand, the reduction of social resources will inhibit the decline in spot prices. Even if the futures market drives the decline, the spot price decline will be significantly reduced. In the process of sustained small increase in market prices, there has been an active market transaction, indicating that the enthusiasm of the end-users and secondary distributors for stock purchases has improved, and the phenomenon of compensatory stocks has become more common, thus increasing the market’s Active transaction level.
Macro data conforms to expected monetary policy
Yesterday, the statistics released by the Statistics Bureau showed that the domestic CPI rose by 1.8% in July, and the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, basically in line with previous market expectations. In July, inflation continued to decline year-on-year, and the rate of decline slowed. Inflation in July may become the bottom of the year. As PPI rebounds and demand improves, “low-cost†raw material inventories will help improve gross margins and profitability, and there is even more reason to believe that corporate fundamentals will gradually improve after August. In addition, inflation has set a new low, providing room for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, and the space for maneuvering of the central bank’s monetary policy has significantly increased.
In general, preliminary results have been achieved from the low inventory supply of the market and overhaul of steel mills. The domestic steel price is currently at the bottoming stage. If we welcome the economic benefits in August, we will add end users in August. The increase in the number of supplemental banks has improved the market mentality with the help of good news, so that the steel market's periodic rebound may occur at any time.
As of yesterday, the domestic average price of 5.75mm HRC in 21 major markets was 3,668 yuan/ton, down by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of 20mm general plate was 3625 yuan/ton, down by 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; 1.0 The average price of mm cold plate was 4,620 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton lower than the previous day; the national average price of 20mm secondary rebar was 3,638 yuan/ton, down by 2 yuan/ton from the previous day; Tangshan billet touched the previous low point 3260 again After yuan/ton, it began to stabilize and stabilized, and Tangshan's procurement of billet rolling mills increased. Starting in the middle of this week, the long-term rebound in the long-term contract market for H-disk and Hirota was the first attempt to stabilise and rebound after the steel market collapsed. It was a slight rebound after the price fell, and was also supported by some favorable factors. From the point of view of the spot, after steel mills overhaul after the collapse, crude steel production fell, social inventory, pessimism and other factors under the influence of domestic steel prices may usher in bottoming out in August.
External disk data is conducive to the simultaneous rise of the stock market and the market
Last Friday, the U.S. stocks ended sharply higher and US stocks rose this week. Non-agricultural employment in the United States rose by 163,000 in July was far better than expected, and ISM manufacturing data also beat the expectations, boosting market sentiment. At the close, the Dow closed at 13,096.17 points, or 1.69%; the Nasdaq rose 2%; the S&P 500 gained 1.9%. New York crude oil prices hit the highest closing price in two weeks, mainly due to better-than-expected US employment report and service industry index, which brought optimism to the market. Weekend crude oil prices rose 4.27 US dollars to close at 91.4 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 4.9%, the highest single-day percentage increase since the end of June. Crude oil prices rose by nearly 1.5% this week. London's London base metal last night closed at 7528.5 US cents, which rose 103 US dollars during the week, or 1.39%.
The decline in daily output of crude steel mitigates the pressure on resources in the later period
According to the latest XNA data of the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key large and medium-sized enterprises in the second half of July 2012 was 1.607 million tons, down 2.7% month-on-month, and the average daily crude steel output of the country was 1.949 million tons, down by 2.2% from the end of the previous year. %. The Xun Bao also showed that in July, the national average daily output of crude steel was estimated at 1.967 million tons, which was lower than the actual average daily output in June (200.71 million tons decreased by 1.99%). The decline in daily output of crude steel in late July was mainly due to the current month’s steel. The price fell rapidly, the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken, and inspections increased significantly, and as a result, the previous mill maintenance was extended to overhaul of blast furnaces. As of August 9th, Zhonglian Steel Statistics had determined that 42 blast furnaces in the country had been shut down or overhauled. The output was 1,601,000 tons; 28 bar lines were overhauled, affecting output of 522,500 tons; 10 hot rolling lines were overhauled, affecting output of 5.2-53 million tons; 3 cold rolling lines were overhauled, affecting output of 50,000 tons; 6 plates Line maintenance will affect the output of 17.8-183,000 tons; 7 strip steel production lines will be overhauled, affecting production of 8.5-8.9 million tons; and the maintenance of 2 section steel production lines will affect the output of 15,000 tons.
Reduced profitability of steel mills
At present, the price of iron ore and coke in raw material products remains in a narrow range, and the impact on the production costs of small and medium-sized steel plants is not obvious; while the cost of large steel mills has remained high for a long time. The domestic Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Benxi Steel Group and Taiyuan Iron & Steel Company issued their order policies in August and they all made up for the previous period. The maintenance of steel plants has gradually increased, and the current sharp drop in raw materials has caused the cost of steel mills to move downwards and the current cost of each product or office has been reduced. The current market continued to consolidate, coupled with the increase in steel factory policy, the current profitability of steel mills showed a gradual decline. Starting from July, major steel mills have started to lower the ex-factory price policy. From the adjustment point of view, the adjustment is still based on the following adjustments. The price of sheet metal is reduced by a relatively large margin and is close to the market price, indicating that the steel plant has implemented the contract. There is still some concern about the guarantee of the channel. At present, the decline in social steel stocks, the ushering in adjustment window for monetary funds, and the pessimistic market sentiment have all provided favorable conditions for a slight rebound in market prices. The decline in market prices is limited, and the room for continued downward adjustment of the factory price of steel mills is relatively limited. It is expected that the ex-factory prices of some steel mills will be raised in flat or slightly higher prices in September.
Inventories hit new lows during the year to provide support for price rebound
As of the end of the week, total social steel inventories in 25 key markets across the country totaled 15,299.7 million tons, a decrease of 79,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 630,300 tons from the high point of 18.93 million tons in early February of this year, with a fall of 19.2%. The current inventory quantity continues to set a new low this year. From the perspective of supply and demand, the reduction of social resources will inhibit the decline in spot prices. Even if the futures market drives the decline, the spot price decline will be significantly reduced. In the process of sustained small increase in market prices, there has been an active market transaction, indicating that the enthusiasm of the end-users and secondary distributors for stock purchases has improved, and the phenomenon of compensatory stocks has become more common, thus increasing the market’s Active transaction level.
Macro data conforms to expected monetary policy
Yesterday, the statistics released by the Statistics Bureau showed that the domestic CPI rose by 1.8% in July, and the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, basically in line with previous market expectations. In July, inflation continued to decline year-on-year, and the rate of decline slowed. Inflation in July may become the bottom of the year. As PPI rebounds and demand improves, “low-cost†raw material inventories will help improve gross margins and profitability, and there is even more reason to believe that corporate fundamentals will gradually improve after August. In addition, inflation has set a new low, providing room for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, and the space for maneuvering of the central bank’s monetary policy has significantly increased.
In general, preliminary results have been achieved from the low inventory supply of the market and overhaul of steel mills. The domestic steel price is currently at the bottoming stage. If we welcome the economic benefits in August, we will add end users in August. The increase in the number of supplemental banks has improved the market mentality with the help of good news, so that the steel market's periodic rebound may occur at any time.
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